In more detail

In October 1991, I was living in Israel and studying at The Hebrew University. Eduard Shevardnadze, then the Minister of Foreign Affairs for the USSR, had just visited Israel and restored diplomatic relations after a 24-year hiatus following the Six-Day War. Two weeks later, the Madrid Conference, which was the first summit between Israel and the Arab States, including Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, was held in Spain in an attempt to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Several days after the summit, I remember attending a conference at the university, where a well-known, highly regarded academic made a statement to the effect that "the world order has been reversed, time to throw out the playbook." Less than two months later, on 25 December 1991, the USSR collapsed in the aftermath of the revolutions in Eastern Europe.

A relative period of peace followed between 1991 and 2001. During this time, there appeared to be the beginning of a "new world order" that was based on the set of global principles that were included in the United Nations Charter following the end of World War II (commonly referred to as the "rules-based international system"). This system is predicated on a set of principles that pertain to global security, the economy and governance. It consists of a set of rules encouraging peaceful, predictable and cooperative behavior among states, institutional bodies, such as NATO and the United Nations, that serve to uphold these rules, and the role of powerful democratic states that serve to defend the system.¹ While this system has always been subject to great criticism, especially in light of many regional disturbances through the years, it also is credited for contributing to the absence of a third "great-power war" for over 70 years and a drastic reduction in wartime casualties.²

As a result, this period of peace has seemingly lulled global families into thinking differently than they had done in the past. Previously, the following planning points generally were at the forefront of a family's thinking in the context of preparing for the unexpected during times of political instability:

1. Do I have an exit plan if things go wrong?
2. What other residency and nationality options do I have?
3. Do I maintain assets in a few jurisdictions just in case assets are frozen in another jurisdiction?
4. Are my children sufficiently educated so that they can rebuild their lives?
5. Do my children have sufficient skills to work in another environment?
6. What if I am sanctioned?

Thirty years of relative peace and prosperity, coupled with various transparency initiatives, seem to have resulted in many people adopting new worldly viewpoints and abandoning this traditional thought process. Many people settled into a sense of global security. Yet this was not the case for all population groups, such as South Asia, where people have always worried about the stability in their region. Nonetheless, the perception of peace and this false sense of security that followed led many others to stop thinking about such issues and planning for the unexpected.

Now, when people think about current geopolitical instability, they quickly think of Ukraine/Russia and Taiwan/China. However, those are not the only politically unstable regions in the world. For example, parts of Latin American and South Asia remain unstable, and one could argue that, given the vitriolic language used in the US, the US is equally unstable. It also appears that many governments have moved away from adhering to the global principles that were developed after World War II. For instance, on 8 May 2022, the G7 leaders released a statement commemorating the end of World War II in Europe and the liberation from fascism and the National Socialist reign of terror. In that statement, these world leaders inasmuch acknowledged that the rules-based international system failed the Ukrainian people and violated the guiding principles upon which the post Second World War system had been constructed. Moreover, just days after Ukraine was invaded, Olaf Scholz, chancellor of Germany, described the invasion as a "Zeitenwende," which represents a historical turning point in the rules-based international system.  

Given the growing sense of international political instability and constant threats of using nuclear weaponry, it may be time to reconsider utilizing these survival thought processes present during the Cold War era. Preparing for the unknown and the unexpected is key to survival. As such, asking yourself the following questions and exploring possible solutions could prove beneficial if such instability continues to evolve around the world.

(1) Do I have an exit plan if things go wrong?

If we learned anything from the events that unfolded with Russian and Ukraine between February and March 2022, it should be obvious that if you do not have a plan, you can get stuck. For instance, 11 million people tried to cross the Ukrainian border over a 72-hour period, and this just did not work. In fact, some people, like my sister-in-law, spent 72 hours in their car trying to cross the border. In contrast, some people, such as my mother-in-law, walked across the border in just 45 minutes. I learned of other situations where people did not have the full resources to manage the 72-hour timeframe to cross the border.

There are a couple of takeaways here: (1) if someone threatens to shoot, assume they mean it; and, (2) if you have to leave in a hurry, so do millions of others — waiting to develop a plan does not work. It is then too late. One must think about possible exit strategies without stress and develop flexible plans that allow for variance when millions of others are trying to leave at the same time. Thus, in addition to a primary plan, there should always be a backup plan if the first option proves unsuccessful. A simple backup plan could have resulted in more people fleeing Ukraine being prepared for the unexpected and without having to scrounge for necessities as they waited to cross the border.

(2) What other residency and nationality options do I have? 

As the Ukraine/Russia crisis unfolded, many countries quickly began creating visa options to accommodate those fleeing, but even this expedited process takes time. What was driving me was my experiences in Europe with the Yugoslavia crisis, where there were limited visas and options. A very dear friend told me that I was using the wrong analogy. Rather, the correct analogy would be the Hungarian Revolution in 1956, where all countries found a visa option to accommodate those fleeing.

Once one manages to exit, they should already have in place a plan of where to go and not have to think under pressure of where to go. Communicating this plan among family members is key, because it may be that not everyone is able to leave at the same time or from the same place. Maintaining an up-to-date passport is essential to enable one to enter another country in a hurry. Once there, the focus can turn to obtaining a visa to allow one to remain for an extended period of time.

(3) Do I maintain assets in a few jurisdictions just in case assets are frozen in another jurisdiction?

One should always plan for the possibility that their assets located in an unstable political environment might become frozen or even worthless. Yet, in a world of currency controls, if one needs to run, one may not need to move funds quickly to restart. One must have a few locations with money on hand to allow them to sustain for an indefinite period of time. In a world where there is increased scrutiny of offshore structures, making sure there is simple access to funds in a few different locations that are a part of the common plan is critical to enabling one to start fresh and be successful. The locations of these funds should be coordinated with potential residency options as part of the overall plan. Another option for added flexibility might include maintaining funds in some form of digital currency.

(4) Are my children sufficiently skilled/educated so that they can rebuild their lives?

I personally have observed that if one does not have the personal skills to start again, it is nearly impossible to restart from scratch, especially in another country where one lacks sufficient language skills. Preparations for children should include learning sufficient language skills and seeking an education that is portable to other jurisdictions to enable them to rebuild anew. Again, this should be coordinated with the objectives of the overall plan, such that family members learn the languages of possible safe-haven destinations where money is on hand. One should also consider what ways they can prepare to earn a living in the safe-haven destination should their stay last longer than anticipated.

(5) What if I am sanctioned?

Sanction means many things. It can mean one ends up on the sanctions lists. Alternatively, it can mean you can never go home again. This question requires one to weigh the risks associated with potential sanctions imposed for fleeing an unstable environment with the risks of staying, which might include a lack of necessities, such as food and shelter, injuries and quite possibly the loss of life stemming from civilian casualties or being forced into combat. As such, the risk of losing one's life, or the life of a family member, should always outweigh any potential sanctions.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we must be mindful that the geopolitical system is constantly evolving and, in some instances, it is revolving, as evidenced by peaceful times that come and go in many regions around the world. A sense of security that is present one day could be gone the next. Many government leaders and foreign policy experts have acknowledged that the rules-based international system developed following the last world war is faltering. Consequently, there is no time better than the present to plan and prepare for the unexpected. As we observed earlier this year, when Russia invaded Ukraine, waiting until a crisis begins to develop an exit strategy is too late. So, ask yourself, why not take a page out of the 1989 playbook and develop an exit strategy and have a backup plan in preparation for the unexpected?